Predictions: iPhone

Anyone that knows me is aware that I'm a huge Apple fan.  The first computer my dad put me on was an Apple II back in the day.  I lost touch with the company until my freshman year of college when I worked on a Mac network. It was around the time that Apple released the first iMacs and brightly colored iBooks.  Steve Jobs has been great at turning Apple around and making it a player once more.  Enough has been written about that over the past 10 years.  Under his leadership, not only has Apple been great at reinventing itself, but it has learned from their mistakes...unlike Sony.  For instance, the iPod.  They made it available to Mac and Windows users whereas the Apple of old would have made it Mac only.  Recently, they have made iTunes Plus which will let users share music without restriction.

I've been waiting for awhile to write about the iPhone, so I figured I'd wait till the hype was at its peak and then scribble.  Well, tomorrow is the day.  And as I sit here in the

Atlanta

airport waiting to hit NYC, I'm seeing about every 3rd person with an iPod and every 2nd person with a cell phone/Bluetooth ear piece attached to their heads.  Apple has finally put a true convergence of these two together...the Motorola ROKR didn't count.  The screen is the latest technology to hit the consumer markets and it's reported to be remarkably easy to use (check out WSJ's Walter Mossberg for the latest preview).  The idea of the 'true' Internet and not a dumbed-down version of it and is supposed to be fantastic.  You've seen the commercials, so you know what you're looking forward to seeing.  My two favorite things to follow are business and sports.  Within the professional realm of both, I've learned to detach emotion from both (unfortunate reality of pro sports).   I have an old G4 Powerbook, an iMac, 2-iPods and am a shareholder (bought it at $35...YEAH!). Needless to say, I'm emotionally involved with Apple, but my parents always taught me tough love.

I'm a strong believer in waiting past the first generation (1G) of anything before purchasing.  I waited until the 3G iPod before I bought one, 2G iMac, the 3G of my current car, etc.  The Blackberry Pearl was the most recent major 1G purchase I've made in a long time.  There are several reasons I always follow this rule such as money, bugs, etc.  However, as I type there are lines wrapped around at&t and Apple stores nationwide with people in the cult.  Thank God for these people.  I will never be the one standing outside for tickets, toys, standing outside the movies for the next Harry Potter or whatever; but those the people that help create the market and drive new technology.  Apple is limiting to 2 per customer.  I'm excited that I will happen to be in NYC tomorrow to see all of this unfold.  My friend Darren Herman said that people have lined up 4-days in advance in

Manhattan

!

Having said that, here are my predictions for the iPhone:

SHORT TERM...From a functionality perspective, I think most people's expectations will probably be exceeded and surprised.  People see the ease of a new product on TV and usually think about the burgers at their favorite restaurant that never quite looks like the picture. 

The gadget geeks will be more than satisfied with their product, but I don't think Apple will hit the corporate customers as hard they are expecting and that includes the usual trendy small business owners.  Unfortunately, Microsoft Outlook still rules the day as a personal organizer and there is no option to sync with this program like there are with Blackberry and Treo.  Any webmails such as Gmail and Yahoo won't be a problem, but most companies of any size don't use this.  

A major surprise I've had is Apple's partnerships with at&t, and the reason is I've not been impressed with much at&t has done from a customer service or innovation perspective; whereas, for the most part, I've had the exact opposite experience with Apple. Their Genius Bars in their stores are just that...genius.  Their open discussion forums online and phone tech support is just wonderful.  They have become a leading poster child for the 'customer experience.' Everything at&t and Cingular in this realm was (and still is) absolutely terrible.  Regardless of Apple's intentions, will customers be able to differentiate the two when they start having problems?  My 18-year old sister can go into an at&t store right now and ask a question about a phone and most likely get someone her age that doesn't know and/or doesn't care....she can go into an Apple store and get someone of any age to help with any product with passion.

$500?  They did this with the 1G iPod which kept me from it.  $60...the data plan and only 450 minutes…if it ran on the 3G network maybe Skype would be a great option here.   Sony is having a rough time with their PS3 and in close danger of losing many loyal users.  There are many factors but one of them is the high price tag.  Sony has had the same problem with their PSP and have come down to the level of the Nintendo DS.  Will Apple duplicate?  Likely not, the market will drive their price down just like the hundreds of MP3 players did for the iPod. 

WiFi support is lacking as a whole and the phone will run on an older EDGE technology.  It's hard for me to imagine taking full advantage of the iPhone capabilities on the EDGE network...I know because my

Pearl

runs on it.  I'm almost wondering if it's a better idea to pay $29.99 a month for T-Mobile's Hotspot program rather than at&t's $60 data plan.  To me, there are more Starbucks/Borders/Barnes and Nobles etc. with Hotspots (see article on T-Mobile's Tripe Threat) than there are random WiFi networks. 

LONG TERM...I'm curious to see what this does for the cannibalization of Apple's iPod.  I'm sure they have it in the plan, since they have 80% market share; but I'm anxious to see it unfold.

Since the addition of iTunes plus now allows users the share music freely and other companies such as RIM begin to push the envelope of smart phones, will Apple lose their dominant position on the music industry.  There are already touch screens out there much more advanced than the one being released tomorrow. 

Does Apple have a plan to become the Google of the hardware world? Basically buying companies and putting them on a shelf to keep them from competing. 

I haven't heard many speak about it, but this will be the first form of iPod with Bluetooth.  So, yes people will be sharing music, but think about the opening for advertisers and user-generated media.  I'm excited about this because we could begin to see some pretty funky stuff.

BOTTOM LINE:  I'm excited about the release and anxious to hear about the new experiences.  I have faith in Apple but not at&t, so I think whatever goes wrong will be taken care of; and I'm pretty sure I'll become a 2G/3G user.

Comments

[Jill Kennedy]

Hey Christien! First of all, I hope you have a great trip to NY and enjoy people watching the "cult", along with all the other crazies that may be lurking the streets while you're there.

On the cell phone note, I'm glad you wrote this. Very interesting. In fact, I needed something to read to keep me awake on this horribly boring day. Your views are always so described and thought out, I love it. I agree with you about not having faith in AT&T. I'm a recent victim of AT&T's poor customer support, thus cancelling them, receiving a $200 cancellation fee, and then pursuing the "in" network. Although the hype is great about the iPhone, I'm not sure if I will ever be a user of it (2G or 5G). If they remain only with AT&T, the item doesn't mean that much to me to go back to that network.

Anyway, thanks again for the reading material! Miss ya here! (think hugs..) See ya!